AI Prediction Accuracy
Last updated: March 2026
Accuracy Summary
76.1%
Coverage
2.35m
Avg Error
7m
Avg Range
46,000+
Training Data
What These Numbers Mean
Coverage: 76.1%
The probability that actual visibility falls within our predicted range (min~max). 3 out of 4 times, the real value is inside our range. For example, if we predict '8~15m', there's a 76% chance the actual visibility is between 8 and 15m.
Average Error: 2.35m
The average difference between our central prediction and actual visibility. If the real value is 12m, our prediction is typically within 9.65–14.35m.
Range Width = Uncertainty
A wider range like '8~15m' means AI judges this day's visibility as harder to predict. A narrow range (e.g., '14~17m') indicates higher confidence.
Accuracy by Forecast Day
Tomorrow's forecast is relatively accurate, but 7-day forecasts carry more uncertainty — just like weather. We widen the range for farther dates to maintain coverage.
| Day | Range | Coverage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomorrow | 7m | 76.1% | |
| Day 2 | 7.6m | 79.5% | |
| Day 3 | 8.1m | 82.3% | |
| Day 4 | 8.7m | 84.5% | |
| Day 5 | 9.3m | 86.3% | |
| Day 6 | 9.8m | 87.6% | |
| Day 7 | 10.4m | 88.9% |
Accuracy by Dive Site
AI accuracy varies significantly by site characteristics. Open-ocean Pacific sites (IOP, Koganezaki) are most predictable. Enclosed bays and current-driven sites (Kerama, Yonaguni) are hardest to predict.
How Our Predictions Work
Data Collection
46,000+ visibility records from 42 dive shops across Japan, combined with weather, marine, and satellite data.
Machine Learning Model
CatBoost algorithm with 72 features (wind, waves, water temp, satellite data) predicts visibility. Q10/Q90 quantile regression calculates the prediction range.
Uncertainty Scaling
Tomorrow gets a narrow range, day 7 gets a wider one. Farther predictions naturally carry more uncertainty.
Daily Updates
Updated 3 times daily (6am, 12pm, 9pm JST) with the latest weather forecast data.
Limitations
AI predictions are reference information only. Please note:
- Accuracy drops significantly after typhoons or during extreme weather
- 76% coverage means 1 in 4 times, actual visibility will fall outside the predicted range
- Tier C sites (Kerama, Yonaguni, Ito) have low reliability — also check historical monthly averages
- Same-day reports from dive shops are the most accurate. Use AI for advance planning
How to Read Our Forecast
8~15m
3/20
8m = Pessimistic estimate (10th percentile)
15m = Optimistic estimate (90th percentile)
Actual visibility falls in this range 76% of the time
Narrow range = confident. Wide range = variable. Range widens for farther dates.