Where Can You Guarantee 15m+ Visibility? Probability Ranking
2026-03-16
"We went but it was murky" — a diver's worst disappointment. Which sites virtually guarantee 15m+ visibility? From 46,000+ observations, we calculated the probability of 15m+ at each site. Sites above 80% mean clear water 4 out of 5 times.
15m+ Probability Ranking
4,797/4,826 obs
1,421/1,473 obs
147/159 obs
800/867 obs
1,354/1,554 obs
262/340 obs
984/1,309 obs
1,291/1,985 obs
361/616 obs
175/327 obs
686/1,544 obs
1,376/3,252 obs
413/1,110 obs
779/2,263 obs
898/3,495 obs
652/3,172 obs
Tier Explanation
S (90%+): Near-Guaranteed
Yonaguni, Ishigaki, Yakushima, Amami. 9/10 dives are 15m+. Okinawa/island power.
A (75-90%): High Probability
Kerama, Hachijojima, Akinohama. 3/4 dives are 15m+. Islands and stable sites.
B (50-75%): More Than Half Clear
Ito, Shirahama, Sado. Pick the right season for better odds. Winter is best.
C-D (<50%): Seasonal Only
IOP 42%, Kushimoto 21%, Futo 26%. Winter-only for 50%+. Summer expectations low.
About the Data
46,000+ observations from sites with 100+ data points. 15m+ threshold based on (min+max)/2.
🌊 Calculators for divers
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